Gwynne Dyer Photo by Contributed /ContributedArticle contentHe didn’t take two weeks to make up his mind whether or not to bomb Iran; only two days. Donald Trump is not a patient man. But he has just started another American ‘forever war’ in the Middle East, so he will have plenty of time to work on his self-control.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.Subscribe now to access this story and more:Unlimited access to the website and appExclusive access to premium content, newsletters and podcastsFull access to the e-Edition app, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment onEnjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalistsSupport local journalists and the next generation of journalistsSUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES.Subscribe or sign in to your account to continue your reading experience.Unlimited access to the website and appExclusive access to premium content, newsletters and podcastsFull access to the e-Edition app, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment onEnjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalistsSupport local journalists and the next generation of journalistsRegister to unlock more articles.Create an account or sign in to continue your reading experience.Access additional stories every monthShare your thoughts and join the conversation in our commenting communityGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorArticle contentLet’s start with the immediate issue. Assume for a moment that Iran was really working to build nuclear weapons, allegedly to destroy Israel. Did the US bombing of the Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan nuclear enrichment sites really blast down through 90 metres of rock and permanently eliminate any skulduggery the Iranians were up to there?Article contentArticle contentArticle contentArticle contentArticle contentWrong question. If there really was a large stock of highly enriched uranium stored under all that rock, the Iranians have had a week to divide it up into dozens or hundreds of packets and hide it at safe sites all over the country. What would you do if you knew somebody was coming to bomb you in a few days?Article contentArticle contentThere was no deadlineArticle contentArticle contentThen there’s this business about how highly enriched Iran’s uranium is. Ninety per cent is “weapons-grade,” and Iran had already enriched a lot of uranium to 60 per cent, so the American B-2s have to start bombing right now. No time to lose. No time even to think.Article contentNonsense. The “gun-type” atomic bomb just fires one chunk of enriched uranium at another chunk, and so long as the two chunks add up to a “critical mass” the bomb explodes. That critical mass can be quite small if the uranium is highly enriched, but it will still work at 60 per cent, although the package will be heavier and bulkier. There was no deadline.Article contentArticle contentThat type of nuclear weapon is so simple and fool-proof that there is no real need to test it, but how was Iran going to deliver it? A ballistic missile, presumably, because drones and cruise missiles can’t handle the weight or the range, but very few of Iran’s ballistic missiles get through Israel’s missile defences.Article contentArticle contentHowever, just for the sake of argument imagine that one of Iran’s putative nine or ten nuclear missiles does make it through and destroys an Israeli town or city. We are piling improbable on top of implausible here, but what would Israel do then?Article contentArticle contentTriad of nuclear weaponsArticle contentArticle contentIsrael would probably respond by levelling Iran, which it is more than capable of doing. It has the full ‘triad’ of nuclear weapons, at least 100 of them but up to 400, of all sizes up to the thermonuclear. Israel can sterilize the whole of Iran if it chooses (although the fallout and the climatic effects would be a major inconvenience for everybody).
GWYNNE DYER: The next forever war
