Ottawa·NewRevenue falls short at OC Transpo as ridership remains stuck in lower gear and help from higher levels of government proves elusive.Councillor says budget was based on unrealistic numbers and risky hopesOC Transpo deficit forecasted to reach almost $47 million: reportThe large shortfall is due to the fact that the city expected money from other levels of government that never appeared, according to a report to city council’s finance and corporate services committee. The city is forecasting a $46.6-million deficit at OC Transpo this fiscal year as ridership remains stuck lower than expected and help from higher levels of government proves elusive.The new figure comes in a report on the city’s second quarter financial results. It shows OC Transpo has already built up a deficit of $6.6 million in the first half of the year.The system faced higher costs from Para Transpo and sick leave changes in the labour code. But most of the damage came from revenue, including fares, which came in $3.8 million below budget.River ward Coun. Riley Brockington questioned the budget assumptions when they came up for debate last year at transit commission. He said he’s disappointed by the numbers released this week.”We just really are not receiving estimates from our senior transit staff that are based in reality,” he said.OC Transpo reported about 30 million transit trips over the first five months of the year, about 72 per cent of the 2019 figure for the same period. The 2025 budget was predicated on a recovery to 80 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.Kari Glynes Elliot of Ottawa Transit Riders also faulted what she called unrealistic assumptions that ridership would improve without a real plan to improve service.”You don’t make a household budget expecting to win the lottery,” she said. Dashed rescue hopes leave budget craterFare revenue shortfalls are expected to continue throughout the year, but that isn’t the whole story. When city council passed the 2025 budget, they included a “placeholder” of $36 million that simply assumed the federal or provincial governments would come to the rescue.That money still hasn’t shown up, putting a far deeper crater in the year-end revenue forecast. The combined hit from that missing money and the ridership shortfalls is $51.8 million.”When you have a hope, and not a promise that’s in writing or an assurance with a handshake from the premier or federal government, it’s very risky,” Brockington said.River ward Coun. Riley Brockington says he’s disappointed by the numbers released this week. (Michel Aspirot/CBC)That’s offset by about $5.2 million in savings — partly due to delays in opening the O-train line east to Orleans — so the overall deficit forecast comes to $46.6 million for 2025.Brockington said those savings are nothing to celebrate, since the delay meant major inconvenience for passengers. He called the overall deficit number “huge.””There’s got to be a more concrete plan for future budget years to get this budget back on track,” he said.Councillor hopes OC Transpo has already hit ‘rock bottom’There is, at least, a short-term plan to plug the gap left by the placeholder. In April, councillors voted to set aside $36 million from reserves to cover the possibility that the placeholder money wouldn’t come through.Beacon Hill-Cyrville Coun. Tim Tierney, who also sits on both the transit and finance committees, said news of the deficit will again mean tough decisions at budget time this year. Brockington agreed.”We have this large gorilla to wrestle. We’ve had it for a number of years,” Brockington said. “This budget going into 2026 probably will not be easy at all, when you’re looking at the potential levy and fare increases, the need for additional service. So we’re still on very shaky ground.”Councillors will be considering several options for next year. Mayor Mark Sutcliffe has presented options to fill what he called a “structural deficit” at OC Transpo, including “operational efficiencies” and fare increases that could reach as high as 7.5 per cent.OC Transpo has already built up a deficit of $6.6 million in the first half of this year. (Michel Aspirot/CBC/Radio-Canada)Glynes Elliott said that’s no way to solve OC Transpo’s travails, which she has blamed on a “transit death spiral.””The fares are rising and transit is becoming less and less reliable, and it’s very frustrating,” she said. “People who have choices are choosing not to ride public transit.”She said councillors should learn from their mistakes from this year and avoid passing a “fantasy budget” for 2026.”You can’t pass a budget that has a giant hole in it,” she said.In Brockington’s view, the priority for OC Transpo must be improving reliability and service quality. He sees one silver lining in the numbers — perhaps.”I think this is the year that we’ve actually hit rock bottom,” he said.ABOUT THE AUTHORArthur White-Crummey is a reporter at CBC Ottawa. He has previously worked as a reporter in Saskatchewan covering the courts, city hall and the provincial legislature. You can reach him at arthur.white-crummey@cbc.ca.
OC Transpo forecasting $47M deficit this fiscal year
