Toronto·AnalysisOntario’s two largest opposition parties are grappling with dissension within their ranks, and experts say the work to unify their members and rebuild their parties will be difficult and could complicate their missions to defeat Doug Ford in the next provincial election.Back-to-back conventions highlight cracks in both opposition partiesShawn Jeffords · CBC News · Posted: Sep 25, 2025 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 4 hours agoOntario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, left, and Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles. Both received disappointing leadership review results at party conventions this month. Crombie resigned after a 57% vote of support from delegates. Stiles said she will stay on after receiving a 68% vote of support. (Patrick Morrell/Felix Desroches/CBC/Radio-Canada)Ontario’s two largest opposition parties are grappling with dissension within their ranks, and experts say the work to unify their members and rebuild their parties will be difficult and could complicate their missions to defeat Doug Ford in the next provincial election.Both the Ontario New Democrats and Liberals emerged from party conventions this month with questions looming about their respective futures. NDP delegates gave official opposition leader Marit Stiles a tepid endorsement of 68 per cent in a vote last weekend, a disappointing result that has seen her shake up her circle of close advisors. And the weekend before, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said she would resign after achieving only 57 per cent support in a review. The party is now in the early stages of launching a race to replace her.”If I am Premier Ford, I would be kind of pleased to see what’s happening because this gives me some margin to maneuver,” said Geneviève Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.WATCH | Bonnie Crombie is out as Ontario Liberal leader. What’s next? Bonnie Crombie is out as Ontario Liberal leader. What happens now?Bonnie Crombie has resigned as Ontario Liberal Leader after receiving only 57 per cent support in a leadership review. CBC’s Shawn Jeffords explains how the party is positioning to find her replacement.Party members frustrated with poor finishes in snap electionFord won his third-straight majority government in the snap election he called earlier this year. But both the NDP and Liberals struggled in the election, achieving disappointing results. The Liberals finished second in the popular vote and picked up four new seats, but they remain in third place in seat count and Crombie failed to win her riding. The NDP captured enough seats to continue as the official opposition, but their share of the popular vote dropped from the previous election. Tellier said she was surprised by the lacklustre vote of support Stiles received from NDP delegates. The party could have struck a contrast to the fractured Liberals while they searched for a new leader and instead questions will swirl about her future, she said.”I would have thought that the NDP would have liked to have shown to the Liberals, well, we support our leader and are united,” she said. “It’s a missed opportunity.”NDP Leader Marit Stiles received a disappointing 68% vote in a leadership review at a recent party convention. She says she will stay on as leader and will make changes. ( Mathieu Theriault)NDP must change to be competitive with Ford’s PCs: MorrisonNDP strategist Erin Morrison said the weekend results were not what Stiles had hoped for. The party has work to do in order to be a serious alternative to Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, she said.”What Marit has to do to ease the mind of critics is fight to win,” Morrison said. “It’s absolutely critical that the NDP changes what it does, so that in the next election, people have a real choice.”Earlier this week, Stiles signaled change had begun within the party, announcing the departure of her chief of staff and principal secretary in the wake of the poor showing in the review.The Ontario Liberals will set up a committee in the coming weeks to make recommendations on the rules and length of the leadership race, with the party’s executive making the ultimate decision. Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy said the race has an upside but also risk for the party rebuild. It will allow the party to raise money and interest, but it also could leave its membership “bitter and divided.”But in the end, Ontario Liberals need to pick a new leader and do some soul-searching, he said.”They’ve got to figure out what they’re about,” said Milloy, who is now the director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College.”They are going to be able to say, we have a new leader. But they’re also going to have to find that basket of issues that they are about.”Stiles under pressure to demonstrate change is happening, expert saysMcMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe said Ford may not have much to gain from this moment when the NDP and Liberals are weakened. That’s because over the past seven years of the Ford government, neither opposition party has done much to strike fear into the premier’s heart, he said.”I think the Ford government wasn’t that afraid of the opposition parties ahead of time,” he said. “I think the opposition has come much more, on the one hand, from investigative journalism and from social movements making use of it to question the government.”But Graefe said the vote results for Stiles are “very dangerous” and she will be under pressure to demonstrate to party members she’s making significant changes quickly. In the end, the NDP could still take advantage of a Liberal leadership race that could take months, at a minimum, he said.”It’s hard to say whether (the NDP) will really be diminished, or in fact, if the loss of noise between the NDP and the Liberals will provide a bit of a stronger voice for the NDP,” he said.Ontario Premier Doug Ford empties a Crown Royal bottle of whisky at a news conference in Kitchener, Ont., on Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025. Ford criticized the popular whisky’s parent company, Diageo, for their plan to close one of their Ontario bottling plants in the coming months. (Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press)Tough to gain traction in Ontario opposition, Tory strategist saysConservative strategist Dan Mader said both parties find themselves in challenging positions and being an opposition leader in Ontario politics is a tough job. It’s hard to build support in a crowded media environment and out-do Doug Ford who is an adept communicator, he said. And the sting of defeat will naturally create some disunity within each party, he added.”I think that in the last election, neither of the opposition leaders could figure out how to counter (Ford’s) message and how to position themselves as somebody who people wanted to trust,” said Mader, a founding partner at Loyalist Public Affairs.”They went into the election, I think, with high hopes. And so, there’s a lot of grumbling there.”Tellier said the real danger Ford could face in the long-run might be from self-inflicted wounds.”Just because the other parties are struggling, you shouldn’t think that everything is smooth for you,” she said. “I think there could be a danger of being over-confident.”ABOUT THE AUTHORShawn Jeffords is CBC Toronto’s Municipal Affairs Reporter, but is currently covering the Ontario Legislature. He has previously covered Queen’s Park for The Canadian Press. You can reach him by emailing shawn.jeffords@cbc.ca.
Ontario NDP, Liberal parties face difficult rebuilds ahead, experts say
