Gwynne Dyer Photo by HandOut /HandOutArticle contentThree months have passed since ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’ saw seven American B2 bombers drop 14 ‘bunker-buster’ 14,000-kilogram Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.Subscribe now to access this story and more:Unlimited access to the website and appExclusive access to premium content, newsletters and podcastsFull access to the e-Edition app, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment onEnjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalistsSupport local journalists and the next generation of journalistsSUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES.Subscribe or sign in to your account to continue your reading experience.Unlimited access to the website and appExclusive access to premium content, newsletters and podcastsFull access to the e-Edition app, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment onEnjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalistsSupport local journalists and the next generation of journalistsRegister to unlock more articles.Create an account or sign in to continue your reading experience.Access additional stories every monthShare your thoughts and join the conversation in our commenting communityGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorArticle contentBut where is the highly enriched uranium that was theoretically the key objective for this operation?Article contentArticle content“Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,” US President Donald Trump exulted on June 21.Article contentArticle contentIt was a “spectacular military success, the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades.”Article contentBut he always talks in superlatives. It means nothing.Article contentThe fact is that the stuff you could actually make nuclear weapons with is still missing. Iran had 408 kilos of Highly Enriched Uranium, enough for nine or 10 atomic bombs if the regime chose to go that route, and that is probably hidden safely away.Article contentIran has about 8,400 kilos of uranium enriched to 3.67 per cent purity. That’s the normal level for use in commercial nuclear reactors, and in 2015, Iran signed an international agreement promising not to exceed it.Article contentEven when Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of that deal three years later, he didn’t claim that Iran was actually breaking that promise.Article contentWhy did Trump do it? Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu certainly pushed him very hard, but the key reason was probably that Trump hates Barack Obama, the first Black president of the United States. That deal with Iran was Obama’s proudest diplomatic achievement, so wreck it: it’s childish, but that’s Trump.Article contentArticle content U.S. President Donald Trump gives the thumbs up. UnsplashArticle contentArticle contentWhat impact have US sanctions had on Iran?Article contentPresident Trump reimposed sanctions on the Iranians in 2018, including secondary sanctions forcing other countries not to trade with Iran.Article contentThe country’s economy shrank, so did popular tolerance for the regime, and Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime searched desperately for a way to bring counter-pressure on the countries that had abandoned it to Trump’s tender mercies.Article contentSince Iran hadn’t been breaking any rules, it couldn’t win the other parties back to the deal simply by mending its ways. Maybe it could frighten them into ending the sanctions instead. Starting in 2021, therefore, Iran began enriching its uranium beyond the permitted level of 3.67 per cent.Article contentThe Iranians thought they were just ‘sending a message’. They were only enriching a few hundred kilos of uranium, and they carefully informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of every baby step they took up the enrichment ladder: five per cent, 20 per cent, 60 per cent. They even showed the IAEA inspectors where and how they were doing it.
GWYNNE DYER: Where are Irans fabled nukes?
