MPs to decide whether to approve Liberal government’s budget

Hi all, I’m J.P. Tasker, a reporter in the CBC’s parliamentary bureau. I’ve been crunching the numbers for today’s budget vote.There are 343 seats in the House of Commons — 170 held by Liberal MPs, 173 by members of opposition parties.The Speaker, who was elected a Liberal but serves in a nonpartisan role, only votes if there is a tie. That brings the Liberal number to 169 MPs who are expected to vote in all instances.The only thing that is somewhat certain at this point is that all Liberals are voting for and all Bloc Québécois members are voting against. The number of Conservative and NDP MPs possibly abstaining — not voting — is unknown. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, the sole Green MP, hasn’t made up her mind. Opposition votes against If the Bloc Québécois, Conservative, NDP and Green Party members all vote against the budget, it will be defeated and the country could be headed for an election soon (169 votes for, 173 votes against).AbstentionsIf the Liberals are counting on abstensions, then they need four to sit it out. If all of the remaining opposition MPs vote against the budget and all the Liberals vote for it, then there would be a tie and the Speaker would be called on to vote (169 votes for, 169 votes against, four abstensions).Traditionally, the Speaker votes to maintain the status quo, allowing for the continuation of debate or leaving a bill (or motion, in this case) in its existing form.If the Speaker votes with the Liberals, as is expected, that would give the Liberals the 170 votes they need to get the budget through in this instance.Some opposition MPs vote for If just one opposition MP votes for the budget — and there are no abstentions — the government will still lose (170 votes for, 172 votes against).If two opposition MPs vote for the budget, there would be a tie (171 votes for, 171 votes against) and the Speaker would be called on to vote.If three or more opposition MPs vote for the budget, it passes and the House of Commons carries on with its other business.Other scenariosAnother scenario that would allow the budget to clear the Commons is a combination of opposition MPs voting for it while others abstain. If one votes with the Liberals then the government would need only two to abstain to tie at 170, with the Speaker likely tipping the vote in the government’s favour.