Article contentGod is still ultimately on the side of the bigger battalions, but recent technological changes (mainly drones) mean that Ukraine can lose very, very slowly. Ukrainian forces periodically retreat in baby steps along various parts of the 1,250-km front, but the Russian army at its current rate of advance would not even reach the eastern suburbs of Kyiv until 2030.Article contentLosing slowly is therefore not necessarily a futile waste of Ukrainian lives. Every month brings another chance for some political, economic or technological change that alters the current equation and gives Ukraine a better bargaining position for an eventual ceasefire.Article contentZelensky’s job is to know if and when the morale of the Ukrainian army and the general public is starting to break. At that point, he would have to make whatever deal he still can — but since the deal Trump’s people have just cooked up with Putin’s people would already reduce Ukraine to the status of a Russian colony, he has nothing to lose by saying ‘no’ now.Article contentArticle contentUnless, of course, Ukraine is at that point already. But it probably isn’t.Article content A screenshot of a video shared on Twitter by the White House of President Donald Trump, centre, and Vice-President JD Vance’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Photo by TwitterArticle contentWhat does Trump have to do with it?Article contentDonald Trump is the only one in hurry. He doesn’t really care what happens to Ukraine either way, but he would probably collect enough frequent peacemaker points to win the Nobel Peace Prize if he can impose a cease-fire there before next year’s winner is chosen.Article contentIt would have to be a cease-fire that gives Russia its maximal demands, partly because of Trump’s weirdly intimate relationship with Putin but mainly because Putin believes he is winning anyway.Article contentBesides, a Ukrainian surrender would mean an end to sanctions against Moscow and immensely lucrative trade deals with Russia for Trump’s family and friends.Article contentHowever, Trump’s leverage on Zelensky has diminished recently because he has managed to monetize US arms aid to Ukraine. Now, instead of going directly from Washington to Kyiv as aid, it is sold to NATO countries at full price, and they pass it on to Ukraine as interest-free loans or gifts.Article contentThe only direct harm Trump can now do to Ukraine is to cut off the supply of US intelligence, which he is already threatening to do again. But we’ve seen it all before, and he’ll probably once again be shamed into restarting the flow of intelligence before long.Article contentThe Ukrainians have not lost the war yet, and this is probably just one more trip around the loop.Article contentGwynne Dyer’s new book is ‘Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World’s Climate Engineers’. The previous book, ‘The Shortest History of War’, is also still available.Article content
GWYNNE DYER: Why the war between Ukraine, Russia won’t end any time soon
