Regional concerns secondary in minds of most votersAuthor of the article: David Delaney • For The Cape Breton PostPublished Apr 24, 2025 • 4 minute readPeople enter a polling station at the Membertou Trade and Convention Centre on Easter Sunday to cast their ballots in the Sydney-Glace Bay riding ahead of the April 28 federal election. Photo by IAN NATHANSON/CAPE BRETON POSTNext week Cape Bretoners will send two representatives to Canada’s House of Commons.Winners in our two constituencies, Sydney-Glace Bay and Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish, will be decided more by national trends than regional concerns. Yes, local organizations can do much, particularly in close contests, but prevailing trends cannot be ignored.So, what then are some of those trends and factors we can look at in determine the result in both local campaigns/THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.Subscribe now to access this story and more:Unlimited access to the website and appExclusive access to premium content, newsletters and podcastsFull access to the e-Edition app, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment onEnjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalistsSupport local journalists and the next generation of journalistsSUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES.Subscribe or sign in to your account to continue your reading experience.Unlimited access to the website and appExclusive access to premium content, newsletters and podcastsFull access to the e-Edition app, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment onEnjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalistsSupport local journalists and the next generation of journalistsRegister to unlock more articles.Create an account or sign in to continue your reading experience.Access additional stories every monthShare your thoughts and join the conversation in our commenting communityGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorArticle contentPARTY IDENTIFICATION WEAKFirst, this election has demonstrated how truly weak party identification is among most Canadians. In the space of several months, the Conservative Party, if one places any credence in polls, has imploded from enjoying a 20-point lead to being between five to eight points behind the Liberals. This simply does not happen in any other western country.Next, while the Conservatives hold the largest and most dedicated voter bloc and will likely increase its popular vote share of 34 per cent it obtained in the 2021 election, its growth potential is limited to no more than the near 40 per cent vote it achieved in the 2011 election.This might not be so bad for them were the other parties, principally the Liberals and NDP, center-left in their recently shared orientation, to remain disparate. In 2021 the Liberals obtained 33 per cent popular support. Its distribution was such that they won 32 more seats than the Conservatives, whose vote was heavily western Canadian based.Article contentThe NDP won 16 per cent of the national vote.Current projections suggest one half or eight per cent of this NDP vote will go to the Liberals. Likewise, the Bloc Quebecois vote, all in Quebec, but constituting eight per cent of the national total, is predicted to significantly dwindle and go Liberal. This could cut the 33-person Bloc caucus to near one-half its current size, with the Liberals being the benefactor.VOTER BASES LIMITEDWe may wake up on election morning only to see these predictions not being realized. However, if the polls are even closely on the mark, the Liberals could conceivably reach 43 per cent in voter support. Considering how weak Liberal support will be throughout Alberta, Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba, this would give them considerable strength in seat-rich Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.How the Liberals have arranged this veritable rebirth, considering the dire shape they were in only a short time ago, is testament to the nature of our politics. While voter bases are strong, they are limited. Rigid adherence to ideology is not the motivating factor for most Canadians.Article contentThe party that imposed the carbon tax now receives credit for abolishing it. A 10-year-old government which under normal circumstances would be on the defensive, is, under new leadership, setting the agenda. All its baggage is seemingly gone; it casts itself successfully as the agent of both change and stability.More remarkably, the same center-left coalition, now positioned to vote predominantly Liberal, is now the champion of Canadian patriotism when only a short time ago this same group denigrated our historical figures and described our national ethos as having been genocidal.REMARKABLE TRANSFORMATIONLiberal leader Mark Carney has done something truly remarkable. As a former Golman-Sachs investment banker and head of both Canada and England’s national banks, he has become champion of this newly emergent left. Mind you, there is a sense that the left, or progressives as they like to describe themselves, are prepared to put some water in their political wine. In doing so they are willing, at least temporarily, to support a Liberal Party that seems intent, under Carney, of moving the party back firmly to the political center. History shows that the party which can best occupy this ground wins elections.Article contentBy contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, until recently so very confident of victory, allowed his populist rhetoric to displace respect for the Canadian affectation for good common sense. Then came the Trudeau resignation and the Trump tariffs and insults. Who better to lead us than the cerebral and calm Carney with his extensive business and finance background, the steady hand on the wheel, the adult in the room.Conservatives were caught flat-footed, displaying a look which conveyed a how can this be happening attitude. Against the Careny effect they now attempt to reinvent Poilievre from attack dog to a more taciturn type, quieter and more reflective. All of it begs the question, how real is the sudden transformation and which is the real face of the Conservative Party?In this two-party election these factors will most determine who wins and who loses our two Cape Breton ridings.David Delaney’s column appears regularly in the Cape Breton Post and on capebretonpost.com. He lives in Marion Bridge and can be contacted at capebretonpost.com.Article content
COMMENTARY: National factors will determine outcomes in Cape Breton ridings
