“The only thing that had me thinking the opposite is that I knew somebody who was working with the Conservatives who told me that they thought they were going to win it,” said Blidook of the Long Range Mountains resultsPublished May 01, 2025 • 5 minute readCarol Anstey was all smiles as she captured the Long Range Mountains riding for the Conservatives, increasing the party’s seats in Newfoundland and Labrador. Photo by Diane Crocker/The TelegramFrom the Conservatives laying claim to a previous Liberal stronghold in the Long Range Mountains to a tight race that came down to 12 votes in Terra Nova-The Peninsulas, the federal election was certainly an interesting one to watch in Newfoundland and Labrador.Kelly Blidook is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at Memorial University in St. John’s.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.Subscribe now to access this story and more:Unlimited access to the website and appExclusive access to premium content, newsletters and podcastsFull access to the e-Edition app, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment onEnjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalistsSupport local journalists and the next generation of journalistsSUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES.Subscribe or sign in to your account to continue your reading experience.Unlimited access to the website and appExclusive access to premium content, newsletters and podcastsFull access to the e-Edition app, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment onEnjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalistsSupport local journalists and the next generation of journalistsRegister to unlock more articles.Create an account or sign in to continue your reading experience.Access additional stories every monthShare your thoughts and join the conversation in our commenting communityGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorArticle contentWhile he’s not an expert on the Long Range Mountains riding, he was surprised by the results that saw Conservative Carol Anstey defeat Liberal candidate Don Bradshaw.Up until Monday, April 28, the riding — both as the Long Range Mountains and its predecessors — had been held by the Liberals since 1980. Kelly Blidook is an associate professor of political science at Memorial University in St. John’s. CONTRIBUTED“Like most of us, I think if you’re following in advance of election day, you’re looking at polls and then you’re looking at the aggregators,” said Blidook.338Canada and The Writ by Eric Grenier are two of the aggregators that are typically used.“Based on them, it looked like that riding was more likely to go Liberal,” said Blidook.“What I was anticipating was they also had Don Bradshaw, who has worked for NTV. I don’t honestly know how well he’s known otherwise, but usually with a well-known candidate in a riding you won before, and because the Liberals had built their support back up to sort of at least the same levels as it had been previously, it makes sense that you would expect them to win that riding,” he said.Article contentA bit of doubt“The only thing that had me thinking the opposite is that I knew somebody who was working with the Conservatives who told me that they thought they were going to win it,” said Blidook.He said the parties don’t necessarily do full internal polls, but they knock on a lot of doors and have information.“The poll aggregators aren’t working with that level of data, so they’re guessing based on their models, which often are accurate, but often, constituency by constituency, sometimes they’re wrong,” he said.He also knew the partisans and those working for the parties also tend to have rose-coloured glasses about their actual odds sometimes, so he was skeptical of the information.“But it turns out, he was right. So, I did have this sort of foreknowledge that the party thinks they’re doing better there than the aggregators were saving, so that’s the only thing that made it less surprising,” said Blidook. Don Bradshaw, Liberal. CONTRIBUTEDMajor issueHe said it’s also worth noting that the Liberals have made two major decisions regarding fisheries in recent years that harvesters in the Long Range Mountains are likely quite upset about.Article content“This probably has played some role in a move to voting Conservative as well,” he said, noting the protests that occurred after St. John’s East MP Joanne Thompson was appointed fisheries minister.“My understanding is that there is significant anger toward the Liberals in that region,” said Blidook.Will the loss affect the party?“Every election, in a way, is its own election. They certainly could come back from it, but when you lose a seat that you held, and that you’ve held for a while, it’s obviously a blow,” said Blidook.Anstey’s win, he said, increases the Conservative foothold in the province.“They’ve got the actual MP. They can do a lot more with that position.“It’s definitely a harm. It’s something for sure the Liberals didn’t want to have happen but it makes the province more competitive.”Read More Conservative Carol Anstey is the new MP for the Long Range Mountains UPDATED: With a tight 12 vote Liberal win, why a recount is coming in Terra Nova-The Peninsulas Liberals say Carol Anstey’s head start on campaign contributed to her win in Long Range Mountains UPDATED: Razor-thin race for Terra Nova-The Peninsulas falls to Liberals after special ballots counted More blue in NL, one still up in the air, as Liberals win four seats Article contentRepresent their constituencyEven though the Conservatives won’t form the official government, Blidook doesn’t think that will make the job harder for Anstey.“It’s not necessarily whether or not you’re in government or not, but you know each MP does what they can to represent their constituency. I wouldn’t say that it’s anything that’s really harder for them. Obviously, being new, it’s going be a new experience. It’s going to be a lot to learn,” he said.“I think everybody is probably a little bit surprised at how big a job being an MP actually is, but I don’t think it’s dependent on whether you’re government or you’re opposition.“Obviously, everybody would like to be in government. But in terms of how big the job is, how much work there is in it, I think it really is the same for everybody. If you intend to represent well going to Ottawa, coming back to Newfoundland, the travel, the weeks there, the weekends back, all the work, I think it’s just a lot regardless.”Article content Liberal Anthony Germain will face a recount in Terra Nova-The Peninsulas after winning the April 28, 2025, federal election by just 12 votes.Tight race in Terra Nova-The PeninsulasWhen the vote count was completed in Terra Nova-The Peninsulas on Tuesday, April 29, Liberal Anthony Germain was declared the winner, with just 12 more votes than Conservative Jonathan Rowe.The two had battled all through the count on election night, but the final results had to wait until the special ballots were counted.In the end, the count was 19,704 for Germain and 19,692 for Rowe.In terms of the count, Blidook said it was the most competitive riding result and the closest.“Based on the fact the Liberals held this riding previously, appeared to have strong overall support in the province, and the Liberal candidate being a well-known media personality, I thought they would do better than they did.”He said the fact that Germain is not local may have been a factor in tightening the race.The countDue to the small difference between votes, there will be a judicial recount, so Blidook said the true margin will be based on that.Article contentIt’s not the first time that there’s been such close numbers in a race, as historically there have been three federal election cases in Canada where the vote result was tied and the returning officer voted to break the tie.“Somewhat famously, former Liberal Justice Minister Anne McLellan was known as “Landslide Annie,” due to winning her Edmonton riding by small margins, 12 votes on recount in 1993. If Germain manages to win on recount, we might call him ‘Landslide Anthony,’” said BlidookElections Canada requires that a recount be held if the margin is less than 0.1 per cent of the votes cast, and Blidook thinks judicial reviews are worth having in cases with tiny margins.“During the counting process, there are scrutineers for parties, but there are still a lot of abnormalities in how people fill out their ballots, and so now all the potentially contested ballots can be more carefully reviewed.”When the judicial review is completed, lawyers will be called upon to address any abnormalities to ensure that only the ballots that explicitly indicate a single candidate are counted.“It’s quite likely the outcome will be different than the original count, and I think it’s important that these cases are scrutinized closely to ensure the selected representative is the one the voters intended,” said Blidook.Article content
Kelly Blidook also thought the Liberals would have done better in Terra Nova-The Peninsulas
