AFN lists 36 ridings where First Nations could swing vote

The Assembly of First Nations (AFN) has released a list of ridings where First Nations voters could decide the outcomes. The AFN says it analyzed population data from the 2021 Census along with Election Canada’s voting results from the 2021 Canadian federal election. “All parties should consider the role that First Nations priorities and electors will play in shaping the outcomes of the upcoming April 2025 election,” the AFN said Friday. The national advocacy group for 634 First Nations highlighted 36 electoral districts where the number of First Nations voters was higher than the margin of victory for the winning candidate. It says it took into consideration ridings where First Nations voters represent at least five per cent of voters, and the difference between the margin of victory and the representation of First Nations voters was less than five per cent. The AFN also looked at regions where the representation of First Nations voters in a riding is 10 per cent or greater. Northern Saskatchewan One of the 36 ridings that AFN says could swing is in northern Saskatchewan. The Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River riding is comprised of 67.6 per cent First Nations voters. It was won by the Conservative’s Gary Vidal in 2021. He beat out NDP challenger Harmonie King and former NDP MLA-turned-Liberal candidate Buckley Belanger. The win gave Vidal his second term in office. However, Vidal resigned one year ago, citing boundary changes planned ahead of the next federal election. With the boundary redrawn, Vidal now lives in the Battlefords-Lloydminister-Meadow Lake riding where there will not be an open nomination to determine who will be on the ballot for the party. In a social media post prior to the release of the data, national chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak said First Nations will hold some sway with almost 19 per cent of voters in the redrawn riding being First Nations. Jim Lemaigre is running for the Conservatives in the Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River riding. The former RCMP officer is a member of Clearwater River Dene Nation. He served as the Saskatchewan Party MLA for Athabasca from 2022 – 2024. Another possible swing riding is Skeena-Bulkley Valley in northern B.C. where the NDP won in 2021, the AFN says. The electoral districts of Northwest Territories and Yukon, where the Liberals won in 2021, are also considered potential swing ridings. Of the 36 swing ridings identified, 14 are held by the Liberals, 13 by the Conservatives, seven by the New Democrats, and two by the Bloc Quebecois. The list does not state whether any of the seats are currently held by First Nations, Inuit or Métis candidates. Voters head to the polls on April 28. Continue Reading