Power & Politics | Carney’s budget faces crucial confidence votePower & Politics with David Cochrane has special coverage live from Parliament Hill as MPs cast a final confidence vote on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget. If the government is defeated, it could trigger a federal election. November 171 hour agoDebate continuesDarren MajorWith question period over, MPs are back to debating the main budget motion.The motion as worded says “That this House approve in general the budgetary policy of the government.”Fairly straightforward.MPs will continue to debate the motion in the House until voting time.1 hour agoNDP MP says wait and seeDarren MajorMy colleague Marina von Stackelberg tells me she just spoke to NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice. Apparently the NDP won’t announce how it intends to vote ahead of time — meaning we won’t know if the budget will pass or fail until the New Democrat votes are being counted.The party’s interim leader, Don Davies, is scheduled to hold a news conference right after the vote, according to a release that just landed in my inbox.2 hours agoThat’s one way to put itDarren MajorPrime Minister Mark Carney defends his government’s budget on Monday. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)We’ve been diligently keeping a vote tally to try to figure out what needs to happen for the budget to pass.Carney seems less concerned.On his way out of question period, Catherine Cullen — host of the CBC podcast The House — asked Carney how he’ll get the budget through.The prime minister offered a cheeky response: “More people are going to vote for it than against it.”2 hours agoMay wasn’t always a ‘yes’John Paul TaskerA few weeks back — just before the budget was tabled — I interviewed Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin and May back-to-back on Power & Politics.I asked Dabrusin if the government was still committed to meeting the ambitious emissions reduction targets set by the last government — 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.She gave me a fuzzy answer and was noncommittal.May popped up right after and said she was leaning toward a “no” vote on this budget given what she was hearing from Dabrusin and the government on climate.Today, the prime minister was definitive in question period — the government is committed to driving down emissions and protecting nature. That seems to have sufficiently reassured May and pushed her over to the yes column.This was far from a guaranteed outcome — May also told us just yesterday she would likely be voting against this budget.2 hours agoMay says Carney must deliver on climate commitmentsDarren MajorCarney says he’s committed to Paris climate targets, gains Green budget voteIn an uncommon exchange in the House of Commons on the day of a crucial vote, Prime Minister Mark Carney took a question from Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. He said Canada remains committed to its climate targets as determined by the Paris agreement.May told reporters that just because she is voting for the budget, the Liberals shouldn’t automatically count on her support in the future.The Green leader said Carney needs to back up the words he said in the House today about reaching the Paris targets.“The Liberals can’t count on me voting confidence in the government without delivering on the words I heard [from the prime minister],” she said.2 hours agoCan the budget pass ‘on division?’Darren MajorI’m back with some more parliamentary procedure trivia.There’s a way for the budget motion to pass without an actual vote being put on the floor.MPs can agree to pass any motion “on division” — a kind of “agree to disagree” cheat code.Basically it means the MPs don’t all agree on the issue before them, but also don’t feel the need to have a recorded vote and just allow the motion to pass.This is how the Liberals passed their throne speech in the spring.But for today’s budget motion to pass on division, the Conservatives and Bloc will have to agree to the process.Any MP from a party that has recognized status in the House can request a recorded vote. If one does, the standing vote happens.2 hours agoIf government falls, a trip to Rideau Hall Catharine TunneyIf (and it remains a big if) the Liberals’ budget is defeated tonight, Gov. Gen. Mary Simon can expect a visit. The most likely scenario would see Carney, having lost the confidence of the House of Commons, ask Simon to dissolve Parliament — sending Canadians to the polls.More unlikely: The Governor General could ask the leader of the Opposition to form a new government, which could be seen as going against convention. The last time a Governor General turned down the advice of the prime minister was the 1926 “King-Byng Affair” — which led to a constitutional crisis.Simon is recovering from a respiratory virus, so if this scenario does play out it could be Supreme Court Chief Justice Richard Wagner who takes the Carney meeting as the King’s representative. 2 hours agoMay: ‘I’m going to vote yes’Darren MajorMay says she’ll vote yes on budget after PM commits to Paris climate targetsGreen Party Leader Elizabeth May says she will support Budget 2025 after receiving confirmation of Canada’s commitment to climate targets as laid out in the Paris agreement from Prime Minister Mark Carney in question period on Monday, ahead of the final confidence vote on the budget.Green Leader Elizabeth May just said that she will vote for the budget.May said she has heard from constituents that they “wanted someone to stop an election happening by accident.��”May still cited concerns about the budget, specifically that it doesn’t mention Canada’s climate targets that were outlined in the Paris agreement.She asked the government in question period if it is still committed to climate targets, to which Carney responded by saying he will respect the Paris commitments.The Green leader said after question period was over that this commitment from Carney helped her make the decision.May’s vote helps the Liberals, but doesn’t guarantee the budget will pass. With her vote, the government needs one more opposition MP to vote for the budget — or two to abstain.2 hours agoCarney hasn’t courted opposition parties like some of his predecessors John Paul TaskerCarney met with opposition leaders before tabling this budget.And Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne included some spending commitments and new programs that appeal to Bloc and NDP MPs in particular, including infrastructure projects for certain ridings, a Youth Climate Corps and a hike to CBC/Radio-Canada funding, among other initiatives.But the government hasn’t bent over backwards to court opposition parties in the weeks leading up to this vote.As you likely remember, former prime minister Justin Trudeau essentially adopted big chunks of the NDP agenda as his own — including pharmacare and dental care — to secure its support for a multi-year confidence-and-supply agreement.And in 2005, former prime minister Paul Martin agreed to spend some $4.6 billion on various NDP priorities to secure votes for his budget in that minority Parliament.There’s none of that with this prime minister. It’s not quite a take or leave it approach — but it’s close. Carney is essentially daring the Opposition to vote against this budget and prompt an election so soon after the last one.2 hours agoCan the economy stay afloat?Peter ArmstrongThe fact remains that there’s very real damage being done to the Canadian economy and to Canadian businesses right now. So the toughest obstacle to the budget isn’t necessarily just in implementing some sweeping changes, nor is it even in seeing if the bet pays off.The hard part will be making sure the Canadian economy keeps its head above water.If Canada can stave off a recession, keep the unemployment rate from rising further and avoid further escalation in the trade war, it will be much easier to implement the changes mapped out in this budget. But that is a tall order, and at least some of it is out of the Canadian government’s control.
Budget debate continues ahead of crucial vote for Carney government
