Ottawa·NewOne week before a final vote on the Lansdowne 2.0 redevelopment, an Ottawa city councillor has released the results of a survey that put his concerns about the project to residents — but the mayor is dismissing it as a “blatant political tactic” from a leading opponent of the plan.Mayor calls questions misleading, but Coun. Shawn Menard says they stick to the factsListen to this articleEstimated 6 minutesThe Lansdowne 2.0 project heads to Ottawa city council for a final vote on Nov. 7. (Francis Ferland/CBC)One week before a final vote on the Lansdowne 2.0 redevelopment, an Ottawa city councillor has released the results of a survey that put his concerns about the project to residents — but the mayor is dismissing it as a “blatant political tactic” from a leading opponent of the plan.The plan to rebuild the arena and north stadium stands passed through council’s finance and corporate committee on Thursday in an 8-3 vote. It’s set to come to council for final approval on Nov. 7.Capital ward Coun. Shawn Menard, whose ward includes Lansdowne Park, has consistently opposed the development, arguing that it will cost green space and burden taxpayers with hundreds of millions of dollars of debt.On Friday, Menard held a news conference to present the results of an online survey he commissioned. It was conducted by Nanos Research and based on responses from 764 Ottawa residents, collected between Sept. 15 and Oct. 1. That was before the report outlining the latest details of the Lansdowne 2.0 plan was released on Oct. 20.Menard said the survey suggests that the majority of residents become opposed to the project “as they find out more.””What it shows is that as people learn about the project, that they’re going to be paying some money for it and that they are losing some amenities that we have now, they are not in favour,” he said.Survey respondents generally supported Lansdowne 2.0 based on their prior knowledge of the redevelopment, though the results flipped in response to a question describing the project in a way that aligns with Menard’s own concerns.Capital ward Coun. Shawn Menard speaks at a meeting of council’s finance and corporate services committee during a debate on the Lansdowne 2.0 project. (Francis Ferland/CBC)The question references a cost estimate for the project that has been a subject of dispute between Menard and Mayor Mark Sutcliffe. It reads:”As you might know, under Lansdowne 2.0, the municipality of the City of Ottawa would build new, smaller north side stands along with a smaller arena that would be built onto existing park space, while selling off public space to a developer to build two condo skyscrapers above a replacement strip of retail businesses. The project is estimated to cost the city taxpayers $437.7 million. In its current form, do you support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or oppose the Lansdowne 2.0 proposal?”Before hearing that question, a majority supported the project. Sixty-four per cent of respondents either supported or somewhat supported Lansdowne 2.0, while 28 per cent opposed or somewhat opposed it.But after hearing the question, only 33 per cent of respondents supported or somewhat supported the project, while 60 per cent opposed or somewhat opposed it.Eight per cent of respondents were unsure in both cases.Mayor calls survey ‘misleading’The report suggests support for Lansdowne 2.0 declined after respondents were presented with the question, but some caution should be exercised in interpreting results where people were asked for a new response to a question they answered earlier. The mayor’s objections to the survey go deeper. Sutcliffe accused Menard of using “misleading questions that misrepresent facts and inaccurately characterize the Lansdowne project.” “This is a blatant political tactic and a clear attempt to discredit the work of staff and block progress in our city,” he said. “The only polls I trust are balanced surveys commissioned by independent parties, where the questions are not designed to lead to a pre-determined outcome.”Menard and Sutcliffe have differed over how to calculate the cost of the project. The mayor has put the total cost at $418.8 million, while Menard has added the cost of a parkade at Lansdowne that city staff are accounting for separately, saying it will be self-funding.Sutcliffe has also insisted that taxpayers will not pay the full cost of the project, since it is also forecast to generate new revenues. He said the net cost to the city will be $130.7 million. But Menard has pointed out that the city is already carving out a sum of $17.4 million per year in its budgets to pay the full cost, plus interest.Menard defended his reading of the survey during his new conference on Friday, saying the questions were based on information found in reports from city staff.”We’ve tried as much as possible to stick to the facts of the project, and that’s what was presented to residents,” he said. “We are spending that amount of money as a city with the hope that revenues come back, but no guarantee.”Survey asked about green space, debtNik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, also appeared at the news conference and backed up Menard’s interpretation.”The main takeaway is that the more people know about Lansdowne, the less likely they are to support it,” he said, adding that all the information used in the questions came from the city and was validated by Nanos.The survey used an online panel and was weighted to account for age and gender. While that specific form of survey has no margin of error, a randomized survey with a similar sample size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.Nanos also asked about specific areas of concern that Menard has highlighted. The survey found a majority of respondents opposed or somewhat opposed to the loss of green space, the reduction in arena seating and the debt needed to finance the project. Near the end of the survey, respondents were asked about their “preferred path forward” for Lansdowne Park. Seventy-one per cent said they would prefer to maintain the existing buildings, while 18 per cent preferred replacing them, as envisioned by the Lansdowne 2.0 plan.ABOUT THE AUTHORArthur White-Crummey is a reporter at CBC Ottawa. He has previously worked as a reporter in Saskatchewan covering the courts, city hall and the provincial legislature. You can reach him at arthur.white-crummey@cbc.ca.
Councillor releases results of survey on Lansdowne rethink as final vote looms
