Article contentDoes Iran have nuclear weapons?Article contentNetanyahu is genuinely obsessed about such weapons, but there is also always a tactical, political element in his warnings.Article contentHe said Iran was “three to five years away from a bomb” in 1992. He said it again in 1995. It was allegedly only one year away in 2012, and it has always been ‘imminent’ since 2019.Article contentWhich brings us to the Congressional testimony of Tulsi Gabard, Trump’s own Director of National Intelligence, on March 26 of this year.Article contentShe said that the U.S. intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”Article contentFinally, an American official who thinks she is working for her country, not for her party — but, then, she is also a combat veteran (Iraq) and a lieutenant-colonel in the National Guard. She takes her job seriously and does not fall for all that guff about an Iranian nuclear weapons program.Article contentArticle contentThere once was such a program. It began in the mid-1980s, when the fledgling Islamic Republic of Iran was invaded by Iraq (with US encouragement and support). It was cancelled after the US invaded Iraq and found no nuclear weapons there in 2003, and to the best of our knowledge, it has not been restarted since then.Article contentWhy don’t Middle Eastern countries have nukes?Article contentAll Middle Eastern governments know that they would face a preemptive Israeli nuclear strike if they ever sought nuclear weapons of their own. (Israel has had nuclear weapons since the late 1960s and now has a hundred or more, deliverable by planes, missiles and submarines.)Article contentThe idea that Iran is working on such weapons now is frankly ridiculous.Article contentIran first enriched uranium to 3.5 per cent as part of its civil nuclear power programme in 2006. Suspicion that it was exceeding that level led to international trade sanctions, but those were eased when it signed a deal in 2015 that limited its enrichment to 3.67 per cent (far below weapons grade) and opened all its facilities to inspection.Article contentArticle contentIt never violated that deal, but Donald Trump pulled the US out of the treaty in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran. After waiting a couple of years, Iran began inching up its enrichment level as a kind of counter-pressure, and by last year it was enriching at 60 per cent. (Weapons grade is 90 per cent.)Article contentThe whole show is performative nonsense. Even if Iran had weapons-grade uranium now, fabricating warheads, testing the weapons and devising a reliable means of delivery (it has nothing suitable now) would take years. Whereas if Israel really believed Tehran was close to success now, it would have nuked all of Iran’s facilities six months ago.Article content”Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” –President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/oniUSgsMWA— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 16, 2025
GWYNNE DYER: Iran likely doesn’t have nuclear weapons but that won’t stop Israel
