Manitoba·AnalysisAs the calendar is about to flip to an election year in Winnipeg, the time is growing short for candidates to mount a serious electoral challenge to Mayor Scott Gillingham.No big name is taking on Scott Gillingham, who squeaked out win by narrow margin in 2022Bartley Kives · CBC News · Posted: Dec 13, 2025 7:00 AM EST | Last Updated: 3 hours agoListen to this articleEstimated 6 minutesThe audio version of this article is generated by AI-based technology. Mispronunciations can occur. We are working with our partners to continually review and improve the results. Scott Gillingham won Winnipeg’s 2022 mayoral race with 27.5 per cent of the popular vote. (Tyson Koschik/CBC)As the calendar is about to flip to an election year in Winnipeg, the time is growing short for candidates to mount a serious electoral challenge to Mayor Scott Gillingham.The former pastor and St. James councillor, who is nearing the end of his first term as Winnipeg’s mayor, announced back in July he will face voters again on Oct. 28, 2026.This alone makes Gillingham the candidate to beat next year, thanks to the outsized role incumbency has played in deciding Winnipeg mayoral races.The last sitting mayor to suffer an election-night defeat in Winnipeg was George Sharpe, who came up short in a narrow loss to Independent MLA Stephen Juba in 1956.That means on the next election night, 70 years will have transpired since the last sitting mayor in this city failed to take advantage of the name recognition provided by the simple act of being the mayor.Nonetheless, Gillingham may be more vulnerable to defeat than any incumbent Winnipeg mayor has been for decades. There are two tangible reasons for this — and more debatable factors that could affect his re-election prospects.What’s not up for debate is the narrow margin of Gillingham’s victory in 2022. He squeaked by on election night with 27.5 per cent of the popular vote, repelling a comeback by former mayor Glen Murray by a piddly margin of 4,391 votes.That was the closest Winnipeg mayoral race since Robert Steen edged past Bill Norrie in 1977. More importantly, the combination of a 37 per cent voter turnout in 2022 and Gillingham’s small share of the popular vote on election night arguably handed the city’s current mayor the weakest mandate in modern Winnipeg history.How weak? Only about 10 per cent of eligible Winnipeg voters elected Winnipeg’s mayor in 2022.This means Gillingham did not benefit from an overwhelming wave of voter support in his first mayoral race the way Brian Bowman did in 2014 or Sam Katz did in 2004 — and thus cannot count on throngs of fervent supporters making he same decision in a re-election effort.Power of incumbency may be waningThat leads us to the second tangible factor that does not benefit Gillingham next year. The power of incumbency may not be what it used to be at all levels of government, in Canada and beyond.”Throw-the-bums-out” sentiment among voters has led to a broad array of election night surprises over the past two years, including Donald Trump’s capture of the U.S. popular vote last year, the loss of Pierre Poilievre’s long-held Carleton seat in the House of Commons and the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives’ loss of their Winnipeg stronghold of Tuxedo.The common thread running those disparate races was a lack of reverence for political establishment. Even a politician as obscure as the mayor of the capital of a have-not Canadian province should not believe himself immune to the prevailing sentiment.Obscurity is also a big part of a more debatable disadvantage for Scott Gillingham. This incumbent is relatively quiet, not very flashy and simply does not enjoy same public profile as his two most recent mayoral predecessors.Bowman relied heavily on social media to enhance his public profile. Katz was a well-known entrepreneur in Winnipeg before he became mayor.Gillingham, meanwhile, is so low-profile, he can ride Winnipeg Transit buses home from Blue Bomber games without being accosted by members of the public. He could be vulnerable in a contest featuring a well-known challenger with high name recognition.On the other hand, Gillingham’s low profile may shield him to some degree from the ire often directed at better-known politicians. That’s a polite way of saying some Winnipeggers may not have a strong opinion about this particular mayor either way.No high-profile contendersRight now, Gillingham also does not face any high-profile competition.Former city councillor and PC MLA Kevin Klein, who finished third in the 2022 mayoral race, said he’s not considering another mayoral run right now, though he refused to rule out the idea.Klein said he is focused on his job as president and CEO of the Klein Group, which publishes the Winnipeg Sun. His candidacy, if it emerges, would represent a challenge to the centrish, if not entirely centrist, Gillingham from the actual right.Former city councillor and PC MLA Kevin Klein, who runs the Winnipeg Sun, has not ruled out a rematch against Gillingham. (Tyson Koschik/CBC)Shaun Loney, who garnered 239 votes less than Klein in the 2022 mayoral race, declared this summer he won’t try again in 2026. Second-place finisher Murray has not declared any intention toward another run.Don Woodstock, who garnered two per cent of the popular vote in 2018 and one per cent in 2022, plans to run again next year, according to a campaign website he already has up, months before the May 1, 2026, start of the registration period that allows mayoral candidates to raise and spend money.Mike Vogiatzakis, who registered to run for mayor in 2010 but fell short of the number of valid signatures required to complete the nomination process, also intends to run in 2026, based on statements on his Facebook page.A successful mayoral campaign requires teams of volunteers who are capable of raising several hundred thousand dollars worth of funds, knocking on tens of thousands of doors and bringing friendly voters out to polls on advance-voting and election days. Organizers of these campaigns typically need to be in place by now in order to be successful. They can not be paid, however, until registration begins on May 1.So even though Scott Gillingham appears to be the most vulnerable incumbent in nearly three quarters of a century, the window to engage in a serious effort to defeat him is closing.ABOUT THE AUTHORBartley Kives joined CBC Manitoba in 2016. Prior to that, he spent three years at the Winnipeg Sun and then 18 at the Winnipeg Free Press, writing about politics, music, food and outdoor recreation. He’s the author of three books – two of them Canadian bestsellers – and the winner of a Canadian Screen Award for reporting.
In Winnipeg, the window is closing to challenge one of the most vulnerable incumbent mayors in decades
