Article contentDid Trump accomplish anything?Article contentSo what has been accomplished by all this back and forth? Just point-scoring, really.Article contentHamas comes out of this exchange looking a bit more reasonable than the Israeli government, but that is an optical illusion. It plays a bad hand very well, but in the end it is just as extreme, just as uncompromising, just as driven by religion as the radicals around Netanyahu.Article contentAnd just as marginal, now that the big boys have come out to play.Article contentThe future of the Middle East will be decided by the United States and Iran, with major supporting roles for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Pakistan. Israel will have only a bit part, doing whatever Washington tells it to do.Article contentWhy Trump is still a wildcardArticle contentHowever, this is where the crystal ball goes dark. ‘Washington’ is actually just Donald Trump, and we do not know what he will do. We can’t, because he does not know from one day to the next himself, but he is desperate and it could be very big.Article contentArticle contentBear in mind what he has done already. He has driven all the Gulf states to revise their view of the United States as a reliable ally. Saudi Arabia has even ordered him to stop US air attacks on Iran from Saudi bases.Article contentHe has inadvertently brought a younger, more radical, more ruthless generation to power in Iran, and they take vindictive pleasure in thwarting his efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Own goal. And when they do reopen the Strait, Trump will hate the deal.Article contentHe has caused the three other big powers of western Asia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to form an alliance under the Mecca Agreement. That’s almost 400 million people, all pledged to defend any member that comes under attack, and that includes defence with Pakistan’s 170 nuclear weapons.Article contentAnd Trump might yet convince the Iranian regime that it will never be safe without nuclear weapons of its own.Article contentSo all is still to play for, as they say.Article contentGwynne Dyer’s new book is ‘Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World’s Climate Engineers. The previous book, ‘The Shortest History of War, is also still available.Article content
GWYNNE DYER: Why Trump’s peace negotiations in Gaza are just a charade
